Brainstorming the Nord Stream sabotage

I’ll play a little brainstorm with the Nord Stream sabotage.

• As the German intelligence service says, only states have the means to do something like this. So, according to my general approach, since the countries involved are Russia, Germany and the US, these would be the candidates for perpetrators of the sabotage.

• The maneuver is preposterous, being countries everyone will know who was the author sooner or later . And it will lead to long-term insecurity about the national infrastructures. So I discard US and Germany. Germany does not even get any benefit. And US because it is too far-fetched for them to attack Germany, an ally, in this way, even though it could bring some benefit. Moreover when they have no need. Therefore, only Russia remains as candidate. Putin has already made several crazy decisions since he started the invasion of Ukraine and is certainly in dire need.

• But, at the same time, Russia is the one who loses the most with this sabotage. So it’s hard to understand. The only explanation I can think of is that this is not about Russia but about Putin. It seems the same, but it is not.

• The gas infrastructure was already paralyzed. It only generated a threat of compensations request, but those are minor issues. The point is that in the short term it did not contribute anything, it was only important in the medium term. And that’s where differentiating between Putin and Russia comes into play. If Putin sees his position in danger, then for him the medium term does not matter. He only cares about saving himself and that means worrying only about the short term.. That is to say, the sabotage would not have an excessively high cost for him, as it would for Russia and Germany asa nations.

• It would then be explained why it could be Putin. But what for would still be missing. To understand this, it is worth remembering that in this Ukraine game Putin has had the support of Germany since 2000. And now they are not helping him! That is, the blowing up of the Nord Stream could be a warning and punishment to Germany. To pressure and get them to help him again.

• Then there would be only one unknown: What assets does Putin have left after the sabotage? What is the warning to Germany? Once the energy dependence card is lost, it seems difficult to understand what remains. So I can only think of one, the threat of uncovering the dirty laundry of the entente between Germany and Russia, which I imagine are many. In other words, sabotage would be a way of warning Germany that he is willing to die killing. That he is willing to make decisions that harm both if Germany does not help him (for example with Ukraine territory annexation after fake referendums) . A desperate move.

• This would also explain the general silence. If no one speaks about the collaboration of Germany with Putin, neither can the subsequent blackmail between partners be argued. Everything matches.

Finally, a corollary. If this is so, which I don’t know, it is just a theory, It would indicate that Putin is desperate. He sees no way out and fears for his own position. And we would have important movements in Germany or, more likely, in Russia very soon. We’ll see!

Slava Ukraini!

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